Home-improvement retailers have proven a bright spot during an otherwise underwhelming stretch for retail stocks, but a popular predictor of remodeling spending suggests tougher times ahead.

Renovation and maintenance spending are forecast to decline over the next year for the first time in a decade, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, which was developed by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. That could be a threat to highflying stocks like Home Depot Inc. and Sherwin-Williams Co., which have shot to record highs this week.

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